The R number will be closely monitored as lockdown is relaxed and it involves lots of complex mathematics to determine the number, however the number of people dying will be a major factor.
The number one is the magic number, when the R number is below one the disease is under control, heading in the right direction and is going away!
Where the disease is seeded it will result in a higher “R “number in that area, and other factors which will increase the value:
- The density of the population seen in big cities.
- The elderly in nursing homes, their carers and as lockdown is eased and numbers of people visit their elderly.
- Ethnic minorities.
- Higher proportion of males.
- The more deprived areas in the cities.
- The number of people in a household.
- The proportion of elderly in a household.
- Underling conditions.
- Herd immunity.
The factors above are often seen to influence other diseases and a major consideration for public health when not in a pandemic.